Nepali rupee takes a dive to 11-week low

Nepali rupee has plunged to 11-week low as US dollar grew strong against a bundle of currencies.

For tomorrow, Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) has fixed reference exchange rate at Rs 101.27 as selling rate based on today’s forex trading of the commercial banks. Likewise, buying rate is fixed at Rs 100.67.

Nepali rupee (NPR) had remained above Rs 100 since last four days as Indian rupee (INR) — with which the domestic currency is pegged —continued to slip. US dollar’s exchange rate was above Rs 100 back in January 6, and Nepali rupee had remained below Rs 100 since then.

The INR had even reached IRs 63.01 against the US dollar in intraday trade today. The developing world’s currency has taken the beating against the dollar with the expectation of US Federal Reserve (Fed) further tapering its bond-buying stimulus. Fed is believed to further trim down its Quantitative Easing by another $10 billion from the coming week. Fed’s taper is expected to reduce the supply of foreign direct investment in the emerging markets such as India. The currencies of Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa have also started to depreciate for the very reason.

The US dollar surpassed Rs 100 against Nepali rupee on August 20, 2013 for the first time, following massive freefall of INR. Within the next 10 days, NPR had reached Rs 108.9 against the dollar — the highest ever. It remained above Rs 100 till early October and since then has been hovering near that level.

The strengthening of dollar against Nepali rupee seems to have affected Nepali trade favourably. In last five months, the ratio of export to import stood at 13.8 per cent in the first five months of current fiscal year, compared to 14.6 per cent in the same period last fiscal. The impact of strong dollar against Nepali rupee seems to have boosted Nepali exports, while import growth has been subtle.

Moreover, strong dollar has further aided in growth of remittance income into the country as the value of migrant workers’ income in terms of NPR has appreciated by almost eight per cent in past six months.

source: the himamalayan times,27 jan 2014
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